2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002
The follwing rankings are based on linear regressions. For more information, see here.
The scale is projected average NBA career impact per 100 possessions.
Great work! Can you put up the data for previous years as well?
I’m not sure if I want to do that at this point, but I will certainly consider it.
I’m also very very curious to see past year results too.
Yeah, I would be interested in the full list of players who had a projected impact over 1.0 since 2003.
I wager T-Rex Zeller drops a few spots once wingspans are released for the 2013 class.
Do you use the player’s entire college stats or only one season?
Are you able to explain the 2.5pt discrepancy between Noel in January (5.1) and Noel now? Not hating, just interested. Otherwise, this looks great.
Do you have much correlation between guys who weren’t putting up gaudy numbers in college, but did so once they hit the NBA? because that’s what seems to separate a lot of this year’s talent from previous talent (on a surface level).
Howling, the discrepancy is simple – I changed the model since the sneak peak. Check out my post called “Draft Rankings!!”
As far as the “gaudy numbers” question, it probably has to do with age – younger players can put up less impressive numbers and still do well. But guys like Otto Porter, Marcus Smart, and Nerlens Noel are – by my NCAA impact model – among the best college players of the past few years.
so…entire college stats? btw love this model!
Since you’re effectively projecting some form of (R)APM and Hollinger’s Euro -> NBA converter seems at least semi-reliable does anyone have a way to estimate RAPM based on box score metrics to at least take a stab at placing Gobert, Saric and Nogueira against their NCAA competition?
This is certainly something I could do, but the big issues are data collection and sample size. I will certainly consider doing it in the future – maybe next year, but I doubt I’ll be able to do anything to this effect before the upcoming draft.
Is there a reason Jordan Adams isn’t on this list? Just glancing at the stats he should grade out above Shabazz at a minimum.
I took out players who I considered unlikely to enter the draft. Jordan Adams is indeed a very good prospect. If it looks like he will actually enter the draft, I’ll re-include him.
I added an RAPM version to my WS model. Here:
Our results are largely similar, but there are some surprising differences. Alex Len is probably the biggest difference (both my models hate him). Yours also like Gary Harris quite a bit more than mine.
ljv, great work! Looks really good.
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