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Draft Rankings

2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002

The follwing rankings are based on linear regressions. For more information, see here.

The scale is projected average NBA career impact per 100 possessions.

17 Comments leave one →
  1. Jim Dauster permalink
    February 19, 2013 8:20 am

    Great work! Can you put up the data for previous years as well?

    • February 22, 2013 1:45 pm

      Jim,

      I’m not sure if I want to do that at this point, but I will certainly consider it.

      • March 12, 2013 9:24 pm

        I’m also very very curious to see past year results too.

  2. February 26, 2013 8:39 am

    Yeah, I would be interested in the full list of players who had a projected impact over 1.0 since 2003.

  3. ljv permalink
    March 14, 2013 3:45 am

    I wager T-Rex Zeller drops a few spots once wingspans are released for the 2013 class.

  4. Mike permalink
    March 16, 2013 10:53 am

    Do you use the player’s entire college stats or only one season?

  5. March 18, 2013 6:50 pm

    Are you able to explain the 2.5pt discrepancy between Noel in January (5.1) and Noel now? Not hating, just interested. Otherwise, this looks great.

    Do you have much correlation between guys who weren’t putting up gaudy numbers in college, but did so once they hit the NBA? because that’s what seems to separate a lot of this year’s talent from previous talent (on a surface level).

    • March 19, 2013 9:11 am

      Howling, the discrepancy is simple – I changed the model since the sneak peak. Check out my post called “Draft Rankings!!”

      As far as the “gaudy numbers” question, it probably has to do with age – younger players can put up less impressive numbers and still do well. But guys like Otto Porter, Marcus Smart, and Nerlens Noel are – by my NCAA impact model – among the best college players of the past few years.

  6. Mike permalink
    March 20, 2013 2:45 pm

    so…entire college stats? btw love this model!

  7. zebano permalink
    March 26, 2013 7:32 am

    Since you’re effectively projecting some form of (R)APM and Hollinger’s Euro -> NBA converter seems at least semi-reliable does anyone have a way to estimate RAPM based on box score metrics to at least take a stab at placing Gobert, Saric and Nogueira against their NCAA competition?

    • March 27, 2013 4:04 pm

      zebano,

      This is certainly something I could do, but the big issues are data collection and sample size. I will certainly consider doing it in the future – maybe next year, but I doubt I’ll be able to do anything to this effect before the upcoming draft.

  8. zebano permalink
    March 29, 2013 4:30 am

    Is there a reason Jordan Adams isn’t on this list? Just glancing at the stats he should grade out above Shabazz at a minimum.

    • March 29, 2013 8:32 am

      I took out players who I considered unlikely to enter the draft. Jordan Adams is indeed a very good prospect. If it looks like he will actually enter the draft, I’ll re-include him.

  9. ljv permalink
    April 9, 2013 2:10 am

    I added an RAPM version to my WS model. Here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdEl1VTBzek9KY2l0Y3ZkOExmN21fdVE#gid=0

    Our results are largely similar, but there are some surprising differences. Alex Len is probably the biggest difference (both my models hate him). Yours also like Gary Harris quite a bit more than mine.

  10. May 5, 2014 1:56 pm

    Are you updating this again this year?

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