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Some Past Results

March 21, 2013

I’ve had a lot of people asking me about previous years, etc. of my draft model, so I thought I’d post a couple of things. Here’s the top twenty prospects from last year  and the top ten at each position overall. Remember that only 2010, 2011, and 2012 are out of sample. Also, please keep in mind that this model is ever-evolving and these numbers are subject to change in the future, especially as more data becomes available.

Top 20 from 2012:

Only Davis, MKG, and Drummond were better than +1, and only Davis was better than +2.

1. Anthony Davis
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Andre Drummond
4. Jared Sullinger
5. Bradley Beal
6. Dion Waiters
7. Maurice Harkless
8. Damian Lillard
9. Terrence Jones
10. Harrison Barnes
11. Tyler Zeller
12. Meyers Leonard
13. Quincy Miller
14. Jae Crowder
15. Royce White
16. Kendall Marshall
17. Thomas Robinson
18. Jeremy Lamb
19. Draymond Green
20. John Henson

And here are the top tens by position:

Top Ten Point Guards Year Projected Impact
Kyrie Irving 2011 4.9
Chris Paul 2005 3.5
Derrick Rose 2008 3.2
Jrue Holiday 2009 3.0
Russell Westbrook 2008 2.8
Mike Conley 2007 2.7
Stephen Curry 2009 2.0
Kyle Lowry 2006 1.9
John Wall 2010 1.8
Raymond Felton 2005 1.8

Top Ten Wings Year Projected Impact
Kevin Durant 2007 5.6
Carmelo Anthony 2003 2.9
Marvin Williams 2005 2.7
Luol Deng 2004 2.7
James Harden 2009 2.4
Dwyane Wade 2003 2.3
Tyreke Evans 2009 2.2
Danny Granger 2005 2.1
Xavier Henry 2010 2.0
Rudy Gay 2006 1.8

Top Ten Bigs Year Projected Impact
Anthony Davis 2012 3.4
Kevin Love 2008 3.2
Greg Oden 2007 3.0
DeMarcus Cousins 2010 2.7
Blake Griffin 2009 2.5
Andrew Bogut 2005 2.4
Chris Bosh 2003 1.9
Hasheem Thabeet 2009 1.8
Michael Beasley 2008 1.8
Derrick Williams 2011 1.6

Otto Porter looks like the second best wing prospect in the last ten years. And Marcus Smart, Nerlens Noel, and Trey Burke each make the top ten for their position. It’ll be very interesting to see how these guys pan out.


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4 Comments leave one →
  1. jdavis165 permalink
    March 21, 2013 8:53 am

    How much does Porter’s three point percentage this year lift his rating? If his long term shooting ability is not as good as he has shown this year, is the rest of the production still showing an elite rating?

    Curious because of Derrick Williams. Porter’s is a slightly larger sample size, but Derrick Williams’ three point range his sophomore year has yet to be seen again.

    • March 21, 2013 9:12 am


      Porter’s three shooting certainly helps, but he’s still elite without it. He could shoot in the 20s and still be better than +2.

  2. March 21, 2013 5:00 pm

    Good stuff James, thanks for the background and context. Age obviously is a huge factor. Curious if any of the star players not on this list – like Deron Williams, Rondo, Aldridge, Roy, Horford, Noah, Brook Lopez, Ty Lawson and Paul George – had a projected impact lower than 1.0. Great work.

  3. March 22, 2013 5:27 am

    Interesting to see why certain players were drafted so high. Players like Beasley, Thabeet, Marvin Williams, Derrick Williams certainly had the numerical logistics in college to back up their draft position.

    Also interesting that certain draft steals like Paul Millsap are not only the list. Most likely because of their age coming out of the draft i assume.

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